Seismic Sleuths - page 317

M A S T E R P A G E
NEW MADRID, MO., AUG. 15—Life on th
A G U
/
F E M A
283
S
E I S M I C
S
L E U T H S
e
fault line is always interesting, as people in this
trembly old Mississippi River town often say,
but a prediction by a man named Iben
Browning is making life hereabouts down-
right exciting.
Dr. Browning, a climatological consultant
from New Mexico, has calculated that on Dec.
3, give or take 48 hours, this area could once
again be the center of a destructive earthquake.
People in Missouri and neighboring states are
taking his prediction seriously enough to plan
events like National Guard drills and infor-
mational town meetings, to store food, and to
consider closing schools on the appointed day.
There is considerable skepticism among
experts and residents of this area about Dr.
Browning’s prediction, which involves calcu-
lations of tidal forces resulting from the grav-
itational effects of the Earth, the Moon, and
the Sun. But New Madrid is conditioned by its
history to take a sober view of warnings.
This town is near the epicenter of one of
the most devastating earthquakes ever record-
ed in North America. A series of quakes, begin-
ning with a colossal shock, struck at 2 a.m. on
Dec. 16, 1811, while settlers and Indians in the
Mississippi River frontier slept. Tremors shook
the earth almost continuously for months, and
two even greater shocks struck on Jan. 23 and
Feb. 7, 1812.
Debate on Predictability
Seismologists say it is impossible to predict
when another big earthquake might strike. But
based on what they know of geologic
conditions, they calculate that there is a 50
percent chance for a 6.3-magnitude quake by
the end of the decade and a 90 percent chance
for
such
a
quake by 2040.
Most scientists doubt the ability to pinpoint
the date of an earthquake. But at least one,
David Stewart, director of the Earthquake
Information Center at Southeast Missouri
State University in nearby Cape Girardeau,
says he has looked into Dr. Browning’s previ-
ous predictions and accords him respect.
Dr. Browning’s previous warnings have
been widely reported in another quake-skittish
locale, San Francisco. He is known to have pre-
dicted the 1989 San Francisco earthquake a
week in advance in an appearance before
about 500 business executives and their wives
at a convention. He is also said to have pre-
dicted the eruption of Mount Saint Helens in
1980.
Like the experts, the people with the
biggest stake in the debate, those who live here,
are also divided on Dr. Browning’s prediction.
Don Lloyd, the city administrator, typified
the most optimistic stance. “We know it’s com-
ing sometime, but it’s just as likely to happen
tomorrow as next Dec. 3,” he said the other day.
Most people are like the police chief, Jimmy
Helines, or officials of the National Guards of
Missouri and Arkansas. While they are not
panicking, they see nothing wrong with tak-
ing precautions, either.
Missouri’s Army National Guard is plan-
ning earthquake exercises Oct. 13 to 14, and the
Arkansas National Guard is planning a
similar drill Dec. 1 to 5. “We were planning
an exercise anyway,” said Maj. Cissy
Lashbrock, the Arkansas Guard’s public infor-
mation officer. “But Browning has attracted so
much attention, this looked like a good time
to let people know we do have a plan.”
Mr. Helmes has planned to store food and
water supplies in a warehouse and to station
school buses nearby for emergency trans-
portation. Mayor Dick Phillips and Mr. Lloyd
are planning a town meeting at which Dr.
Stewart will discuss precautions.
In addition, officials of a few schools in
nearby towns are considering closing them for
the day. Gerald Murphy, a high school coach,
wants his wife, Beth, to take their baby and
got out of town, and James and Gloria Taylor
of nearby Lilboum are planning to take their
daughter and son-in-law on a trip on the first
weekend in December.
See Quake (next page)
1...,307,308,309,310,311,312,313,314,315,316 318,319,320,321,322,323,324,325,326,327,...403
Powered by FlippingBook