TEACHING CLUES AND CUES
The second activity in
this lesson, Faulty
Reasoning, reviews the
federal government’s
would occur on December 3, 1990, plus or minus 48 hours. However,
his forecast also said that the earthquake would occur between the
30° N and 60° N lines of latitude, an area that encircles the Earth.
According to scientists, the probability that a seismic event of
magnitude 6.0 or greater will happen in such a broad zone of the
Earth’s surface is actually very high.
However, the media reported that Browning had specifically predicted
a catastrophic earthquake in the highly seismic area of New Madrid,
Missouri, which in 1811-12 was the epicenter of the most powerful
earthquakes ever recorded in the continental United States. People in
the New Madrid area reacted to the continual flow of media coverage
about the impending quake by stocking up on food and water,
purchasing expensive earthquake insurance, making plans to travel to
distant places, developing emergency community preparedness plans,
and retrofitting buildings. School systems even scheduled “earthquake
breaks.” On the day of the predicted seismic event, the little
midwestern town of New Madrid was overrun by the television and
newspaper media.
official protocol for assessing
earthquake predictions.
B. Lesson Development
1. Divide the class into groups of four or five students each and
distribute at least two newspaper articles on Master 5.la to each group.
Instruct students to read the articles and take notes individually, then
discuss what they have read. Student notes should answer the
following questions:
Q
How did government agencies react to the prediction?
Q
How did the scientific community react?
Q
How did some entrepreneurs react (people who saw an opportunity
to make money)?
Q
How did many laypeople react?
2. Now ask students in each group to pool their notes and write a brief
team report that covers the following points:
Q
How did Iben Browning arrive at his prediction?
Q
How did the people of the New Madrid seismic zone and
surrounding, areas react to the media coverage?
Q
How did the scientific community react?
Q
How did the news media react?
Q
In your opinion, which governmental agencies should citizens
consult to obtain information about the accuracy of earthquake
forecasting?
Q
How would personally react to headlines and newspaper accounts of
a devastating earthquake that was forecast for your home town?
3. Invite teams to orally present their reports to the class. When all
groups have reported, discuss and analyze the teams’ conclusions in
light of new information from other teams. Encourage students to
point out discrepancies among the various reports. (Iben Browning’s
A G U
/
F E M A
274
S
E I S M I C
S
L E U T H S
