M A S T E R P A G E
The
New York Times,
October 19, 1990
Panel of Scientists Finds No Basis
For Prediction of Missouri Quake
ST. LOUIS, OCT. 18 (AP)—Projections of a
major earthquake in the Midwest in early
December are without scientific basis, a group
of scientists said today.
The 11 scientists reporting to the United
States Geological Survey said there was a long-
term possibility of a major earthquake along
the New Madrid Fault, but said there was no
credibility in the widely circulated projection
made by Iben Browning, a climatologist and
business consultant based in Sandia Park, NM,
of a 50-50 chance it will happen Dec. 3.
Public anxiety over Mr. Browning’s New
Madrid projection has been widely reported,
coupled with reports that Dr. Browning had
also warned of last year’s Northern California
earthquake a week in advance in an appear-
ance before about 500 business executives and
their wives at a convention in San Francisco.
The scientific group said today that it had
found no evidence that Mr. Browning had
predicted last year’s earthquake. Mr. Browning
has said the reports of his predictions are based
on accounts from members of the private audi-
ences that he addresses.
A woman who answered the telephone
Thursday at Mr. Browning’s home and iden-
tified herself as his wife said he was unavail-
able for comment.
The scientists said a transcript of his Oct.
10, 1989, speech showed that “his statement
was ‘there will probably be several earth-
quakes around the world, Richter 6 plus, and
there may be a volcano or two.’ No mention is
made of an earthquake occurring in the San
Francisco area or even California.”
The scientific group issued its finding at a
news conference in St. Louis. The scientists
who contributed to the report were brought
together from universities and governmental
agencies to evaluate the scientific validity of
Mr. Browning’s projection.
“Such a projection, especially at the
predicted 50-50 chance level, implies a level
of detailed knowledge that simply does not
exist for the New Madrid or any other fault
zone in the world,” the group said in its reports
for the National Earthquake Prediction
Evaluation Council.
Mr. Browning bases his projections on the
forces of tides and gravity. He has said that
for 48 hours before and after Dec. 3, these
forces will be particularly strong.
“Browning’s correlation of earthquake
activity with danger periods at times of highs in
tidal forces does no better at predicting earth-
quakes of magnitudes greater than 6.5 than
does random guessing,” the scientists’ report
said.
The New Madrid Fault runs from Marker
Tree, AR, across southeastern Missouri to
southern Illinois, and produces hundreds of
small quakes every year, most hardly felt. It
is named for the Missouri town of New Madrid,
about 140 miles south of St. Louis.
In 1811-1812, a series of quakes estimat-
ed at up to 8 on the Richter scale of ground
motion struck the New Madrid region, caus-
ing the Mississippi River to appear to flow
backward and ringing church bells in
Washington, DC.
Southeast Missourian,
Cape Girardeau, MO, Dec. 3, 1990
‘Circus’ comes to New Madrid:
Projection puts town in spotlight
by David Hente, Staff Writer
NEW MADRID—For the past several months,
tiny New Madrid has been the focus of grow-
ing national and international attention. On
Sunday, the media circus came to town.
The attention was touched off by the pro-
jection of climatologist Iben Browning that a
major earthquake could occur along the geo-
logical fault named after the town.
Residents of New Madrid and others who
live along the fault will learn today if Dr.
Browning’s projection comes to pass.
New Madrid, population 3,204, is located
at the head of a large bend in the Mississippi
River, in the Missouri boot heel.
Until recently, few people outside of this
area had heard very much about New Madrid,
and even fewer knew how to pronounce the
name of the town correctly (NewMAD-rid).
But Browning’s projection caught the atten-
tion of the news media, and New Madrid is
now on the minds of people throughout the
nation and the world.
Over the weekend, tourists, visitors, and
the news media have flocked into the town.
“I’ve seen more tourists in the past two
weeks than I had seen in the past six months,”
said Jean Hanner, manager of Rick’s Texaco,
located on Main Street a few blocks from the
river.
As Dec. 3 approached, the media contin-
ued to swarm into town. By midday Sunday,
more than 20 satellite transmission trucks and
vans were parked along the New Madrid levee
and in other parts of town. A network techni-
cian said that was more than were at the Super
Bowl game last year.
The four major networks, CBS, ABC,
NBC, and Cable News Network, along with
televi-
sion stations from Atlanta, GA, Chattanooga,
TN, Louisville, KY, Dallas-Fort Worth, TX,
Nashville, TN, Kansas City, and St. Louis were
preparing to transmit live coverage Sunday
and Monday via satellite. Numerous other
radio stations and print media reporters were
also on hand.
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