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F E M A
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L E U T H S
TEACHING CLUES AND CUES
According to Bruce Bolt
(
Earthquakes
, 1993
edition, p. 185), the
methods of prediction
3. After several minutes, ask one student in each of the groups to
summarize the group’s findings. While answers may vary, the pattern
of response should consistently indicate how helpful such precise
information would be to surviving an earthquake with minimum loss
of life and property damage.
4. Write this statement on the overhead or chalk board: “Earthquake
prediction or forecasting takes place at several levels of generalization
and involves various approaches.” Stress the term generalization, so
students will recognize that prediction is broadly based and in many
instances, largely theoretical.
5. Distribute copies of Master 5.lb and instruct students to classify
each of the approaches to predicting earthquakes listed into one of the
three categories on the table that follows. Their challenge is to
organize the data about earthquake predictions into a chart classifying
different kinds of information.
6. When the students have developed the charts, allow time for sharing
and comparing answers. The important element in this part of the
activity is not that students make the “right” classification, but that
they can defend their reasoning.
C. Conclusion
Explain to the class the federal government’s official protocol for
evaluating earthquake predictions.
The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)
convenes to hear evidence for the prediction of an earthquake above
magnitude 5.5. If the NEPEC validates the prediction, the following
will occur:
that currently show the most promise
require elaborate equipment and
many workers, so that their cost is
likely to be prohibitive.
Issuance of Earthquake Predictions. The Director of the
United States Geological Survey (USGS) is hereby given the
authority, after notification of the Director of the Federal
Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to issue an
earthquake prediction or other earthquake advisory as he [sic]
deems necessary. ... The Director of FEMA shall have
responsibility to provide state and local officials and residents
of an area for which a prediction has been made with
recommendations of action to be taken.
Public Law 95-124, Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act,
as amended [P.L. 96-472]
Add that the USGS also issues earthquake advisories. The state of
California has its own earthquake prediction evaluation council and its
own notification protocol.
Ask students to review the notes they have taken and the chart data
they have organized, then select the theory or approach that seems
most plausible to them. As homework or in class, each may write a
personal prediction of how this approach will be developed and
refined in the coming years. Students may want to defend their
predictions in a class discussion.
