5.1
Predicting
VOCABULARY
Prediction:
a statement
that something is likely
to happen based on past
experience. A prediction
ACTIVITY ONE
I R
EAD
I
T IN THE
N
EWSPAPER
RA T I ONA L E
By reading newspaper accounts of an earthquake “prediction” or
forecast that proved to be false, students will learn to be critical
consumers of media reports. They will analyze the content of articles
spanning more than a year and compare the varying reactions of
different people and groups.
F OCU S QU E S T I ON S
What would you do if an earthquake was predicted for your town?
OB J E C T I V E S
Students will:
1. Read media accounts analytically.
2. Visualize the effect of an earthquake prediction on a community.
3. Know how to obtain reliable earthquake information from the
appropriate government agencies.
MA T E R I A L S
Q
Student copies of Master 5.la, Newspaper Accounts (6 pages)
Q
Paper and pencils or pens
is usually only as reliable as its
source.
Probability:
in mathematics, the
ratio of the number of times
something will probably occur to the
total number of possible
occurrences. In common usage, an
event is probable, rather than merely
possible, if there is evidence or
reason to believe that it will occur.
Retrofitting:
making changes to a
completed structure to meet needs
that were not considered at the time
it was built; in this case, to make it
better able to withstand an
earthquake.
TEACHING CLUES AND CUES
According to the Federal
Emergency Manage-
ment Agency (FEMA),
an earthquake prediction
P ROC E DUR E
Teacher Preparation
Read the articles before you distribute them to students. Outline the
highlights of each article, especially noting the effects of the forecast
upon the community, how the forecast is reported slightly different in
each story, and the response of governmental agencies.
must include time, place, magnitude,
and probability. An earthquake
forecast is much less precise.
A. Introduction
Tell the class that in the fall of 1989, climatologist Iben Browning
reportedly predicted that an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater
A G U
/
F E M A
273
S
E I S M I C
S
L E U T H S
