doctoral degree, for example, is variously reported as being in physiolo-
gy, in climatology, in zoology, in biology, and in genetics and
bacteriology.) Point out, however, that the pages were originally arranged
in chronological order, so it takes the full set to tell the full story. No one
group will have as much information as the class as a whole.
C. Conclusion
Invite discussion of the nature of Browning’s earlier “successful”
predictions. Could they have been of the same open-ended nature as
this one? How difficult is it to successfully predict an earthquake after
it has happened?
Be sure students know where to obtain accurate earthquake informa-
tion: from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Federal Emergency
Management Agency, their state office of emergency services, and the
state geological surveys. (The latter have various names, such as the
California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, the Missouri
Emergency Management Agency, the Vermont Division of
Emergency Management, and the Utah Division of Comprehensive
Emergency Management.) Check the resource list in Unit 1 and your
local telephone books for these listings.
ADA P T A T I ON S AND E X T E N S I ON S
1. According to the articles, Browning specified a time period that
would coincide with the Moon’s maximum gravitational attraction
upon the Earth. Ask students how they would set up a test to
demonstrate that the Moon affects earthquake or volcano activity.
2. Distribute copies of the August 1991 article, the last in the set, to
every student, or read it aloud with the class. Discuss the conclusion
that the scientific community was partly to blame.
ACTIVITY TWO
F
AULTY
R
EASONING
RA T I ONA L E
VOCABULARY
Because of the randomness of seismic events and the fact that scientific
understanding about earthquake-generating mechanisms is still evolv-
ing, earthquake prediction today is imprecise, indeed even speculative.
Generalization: a
statement made after
observing occurrences
that seem to repeat and
to be related.
F OCU S QU E S T I ON
Why is predicting earthquakes not an exact science?
OB J E C T I V E S
Students will:
1. Explain the purpose of predicting earthquakes.
2. Identify several types of seismic predictions.
3. Explain why earthquake prediction is complex and based largely on
probability.
A G U
/
F E M A
275
S
E I S M I C
S
L E U T H S
